|
|
By Ted Belman
June 25, 2006
The biggest threat Israel faces today is the "peace process" with its insistence on the Saudi Peace Plan. It is aided and abetted by Israel's "we are tired" camp and its "let's make a deal" camp.
With this in mind, I took the position during the Palestinian elections that an Hamas victory would be good for Israel because it would stop the "peace process". And so it has. The threat of rockets raining down on Israel from Gaza isn't near the threat that the peace process was and is. This is so even if the rockets start to rain down on Tel Aviv from the West Bank. Israel always has it in its power to stop it at a time of its choosing. The more they rain down the less support the Palestinians have in Europe.
Since the peace process has been stymied, the biggest threat facing Israel today is Olmert's realignment intentions (they don't yet amount to a "plan"). True that the US and the EU to say nothing of the Arabs have not supported the plan at least publicly, yet they remain a threat.
Keep in mind that the US has micro-managed the location of the fence from day one and even enabled the financing for it.
In Sept '05 AP reported U.S. to Back Israeli Settlements
"The policy is exactly what the president said," Kurtzer said in the prerecorded interview. "In the context of a final status agreement, the United States will support the retention by Israel of areas with a high concentration of Israeli population."
Kurtzer's language went slightly further than the original Bush letter, which did not speak of Israel retaining territory it captured in the 1967 Middle East war but said only that a return to the prewar borders of 1949 was unlikely.
"In light of new realities on the ground, including already existing major Israeli populations centers, it is unrealistic to expect that the outcome of final status negotiations will be a full and complete return to the armistice lines of 1949," Bush wrote in the letter handed to Sharon during a visit to Washington on April 14 last year.
In a letter he handed Bush in exchange, Sharon pledged to dismantle settlement outposts put up since March 2001 and limit expansion of existing settlements.
With this exchange of letters in mind, how can we have confidence in Olmerts plan to build in E1 or even to retain Ariel.
US diplomacy is now focused on two things, namely; defeating Hamas with the aid of Abbas and encouraging negotiations between Olmert and Abbas. The purpose of these negotiations is to attempt to reach a deal where the fence or something close to it becomes the border. Obviously Abbas is not going to agree to more then Bush agreed to. It is not likely that Olmert can negotiate for more despite his promises to the Israeli public. In addtition Israel has committed to Bush not to expand settlements so where does that leave "realignment". And now Olmert has capitulated to the EU which demanded that Jerusalem be divided.
The Roadmap was intended to end the terrorism and obviously has failed miserably in that regard. Yet Olmert has announced his intention to jump to Phase II of the Roadmap and negotiate anyway. Why is he in such a rush to capitulate?
In Focus on Israel, I included a proposal for expanding Jerusalem. As much as I like the proposal, there are great risks.
The annexation won't be recognized and Israel would have to extend the same rights to the Arabs within its extended boundaries as it did with the first annexation. If that were the end of it, I would have no problems with doing so. Such annexation may be considered the death knell of the Roadmap and the world may then demand that Israel incorporate the West Bank and Gaza too into a binational state.
How can Israel just say no to this? Would it be forced to succumb? Would it be a catalyst to other solutions?
At the moment, it appears that Israel is going in the direction of accomodation to the demands of the Quartet and the Arabs. To avoid this fate, Israel must encourage the violence in the territories to continue at tolerable levels.
But that doesn't solve the problem. It only avoids the peace process. My suggestion for study is that Israel should expand the boundaries around Jerusalem, build the fence and agree to uproot the settlements east of the fence in exchange for recognition of the new boundaries.
Like it or lump it.
The world will refuse and Israel will consolidate Jerusalem.
Views expressed by the author do not
necessarily reflect those of israelinsider.
 
|
|
|
|
Click on the blue headline to read a Talkback comment and respond to it. Click on the  icon to send a private email to the talkback writer. The icon appears only if the writer has decided to be contacted. If no popup window appears, please make sure your popup blocker allows israelinsider.com.
|
|
| |
|
|
