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Moshe Feiglin is head of the Jewish Leadership faction in the Likud and can be reached via the web site.
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By Moshe Feiglin
August 8, 2006
Translated from the Hebrew article that appeared in the Israeli Maariv daily newspaper on the 1st of Av 5766 -- July 26, 06. Although the following imaginary scenario was written two weeks ago, it is becoming disturbingly more realistic everyday.
On the thirtieth day of the war, Nasrallah called a press conference.
"We did not start the war," he explained. "All that we wanted was to free our captives from Israel's hands. But the Jews began to shell innocent citizens and we were forced to react. For an entire month old people, women and children have been forced to live in bomb shelters -- both in Lebanon and in Israel. Therefore, I have decided that we will unilaterally halt the firing of missiles on Israel for 24 hours. If after that unilateral cease fire Israel continues to bomb Lebanon's cities, we will renew the shooting with even more firepower than you have witnessed until now."
How would this story continue? What would the Prime Minister decide to do?
On one hand, Israel has been fighting for a month. The IDF has battered the Hizbollah, but nevertheless, rockets are still landing on the north, the economy is collapsing, a million people are either suffocating in bomb shelters or seeking refuge in the "safe" parts of Israel, more and more casualties on the front lines and in Israel's cities and towns make the headlines daily, Israel's public is losing faith in the possibility of winning this war....
But on the other hand, agreeing to Nasrallah's offer is actually admitting that Israel was defeated.
What do we do?
The PM hurriedly gathered his strategic advisors.
"There is no choice." said the Chief Military Advisor in his poetic style, "What we have done until now is like putting a fly trap in a garbage dump. The pictures of the traps full of flies calmed the public for a bit, but the mountain of garbage remains unimpressed. That mountain is in Iran -- we must attack it!"
"Have you gone mad?!" the Foreign Minister bellowed. "After an entire month of fighting you still can't overcome the Hamas and the Hizbollah and now you want to entangle us in a face to face war with Iran?"
"I suggest that we all remember that in no time they will have nuclear capabilities. It doesn't look like the US is going to take them out. I don't think we have any choice. If we beat the Iranians, we will also solve the nuclear problem and also the problem of Iran's Lebanese tentacle -- the Hizbollah," the Chief Military Advisor responded.
"And how exactly do you intend to eliminate the problem?" asked the Defense Minister. "Do you have an operative plan?"
"Iran's nuclear plants are scattered in a number of centers throughout the country," the Chief Military Advisor replied, while signaling his assistant to turn on the projector showing a large map of Iran. "All the green areas are related in one way or another to their nuclear program. In our estimation, a strike here, here, or here -- will eliminate Iran's nuclear development for at least the next decade.
"Can the IDF do it?" asked the Prime Minister.
"All of these installations are dug deep into the ground. The distance involved and the amount of forces needed point to the fact that in a regular war, we will not succeed in this mission, "the Chief Military Advisor answered and immediately continued.
"I suggest weighing the use of tactical nuclear weapons?"
"He really has gone mad!" burst out the Justice Minister. "Within five minutes Russia and the US will erase us from the face of the earth!"
"Chaim," answered the Chief Military Advisor, "you do not seem to understand the situation that we are facing. It's not Nasrallah -- it's Iran and actually the entire Moslem world who are very close to bringing us down on our knees. If we accept Nasrallah's offer now, they will justifiably reach the conclusion that we have admitted defeat. The Americans who regarded us until now as a strategic ally against Islamic fundamentalism, will see us as a burden. Who knows? Maybe they will support Syria instead and we will be forced to retreat from the Golan Heights? Don't forget that the Egyptians were once ostracized like the Syrians. But as soon as they received the Sinai after our retreat from there they became a strategic partner of the US and received a huge supply of modern American weapons.
Ahmadinejad has already sent the children of the Islamic revolution to blow up mine fields for him with the keys to the Garden of Eden dangling from their necks. Their mothers fought over who will send her son first. For Ahmadinejad, ten destroyed Iranian cities in exchange for the status of the modern day Salah-a-Din that uprooted the Jewish thorn from the Middle East is a great enticement. If there is one thing that we must learn from what is happening now it is that a pistol that appears in the first act of the Middle East drama will shoot before the end of the play. If Ahmadinejad will have a nuclear bomb -- he is going to use it."
"In my opinion," the Chief Military Advisor summarized, "our choice is either to attack Iran, or to knowingly lead Israel to its death by the salami method -- one slice after the other until the final blow that will take us out of our misery. And as far as the possible dangers of a counterattack against us -- I suggest that we all look at how the world relates to North Korea. As soon as that crazed terror country went nuclear, nobody is willing to touch it. Israel has second strike capabilities against threats from anywhere in the world."
"There is no doubt that we will temporarily be 'untouchable,' he continued."The world will certainly boycott and sanction us. But deep down, everyone will know that we solved the Iranian problem for the entire world. In the end they will thank us for stuffing the Islamic genie back into the bottle. Most likely, after a certain period of time our international status will not only stabilize, but completely new horizons will open to us. The alternative is to abandon the next generation to the mercies of the Ayatollahs. Look at what is happening today in the north. That is just the appetizer. The only people who will remain in Israel in that type of situation are those who have nowhere to escape...."
The Chief Military Advisor stopped speaking. It looked like the Prime Minister had lost his focus and the Chief Military Advisor waited patiently. The Prime Minister's attorney and his mythical media advisor whispered anxiously in his ear. "Even he says that we are talking about at least ten years," the media advisor whispered a bit too loudly. The attorney hurriedly scribbled a note and set it before the PM.
"O.K." said Olmert in a confident voice after a few moments. "We heard the Chief Military Advisor. I have no complaints. The IDF must set all the military options before us, and that is just what he did. I, of course, have no intention of entering into such a wild adventure. In another half hour I will call an international press conference in which I will make the following points:
1) Nasrallah's announcement proves the justice of Israel's policies. This is a great victory for our glorious army, for the soldiers of the IDF and for the resilience of the citizens of Israel. Their sacrifices were not in vain.
2) We are pleased that there will be no more need for bombing. The issue of the release of the abducted soldiers will be dealt with through diplomatic and other channels.
3) The main goal of the IDF for the coming year will be Convergence. I have ordered the IDF to prepare all the plans and I am sure that the IDF soldiers that carried out last year's Disengagement with determination and sensitivity will successfully carry out their next mission. I am determined to solve the problem at its source, once and for all. For the coming generations of Israelis -- Judea, Samaria and the Golan Heights will be free of Jews by the summer of 2007.
Views expressed by the author do not
necessarily reflect those of israelinsider.
 
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