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Dr. Aaron Lerner is co-founder of , Independent Media Review and Analysis, an Israel-based news organization which provides an extensive digest of media, polls and significant interviews and events relating to the Israeli-Arab conflict.
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By Dr. Aaron Lerner
November 17, 2006
With Iran well on its way to going nuclear and growing concerns regarding the potential radicalization of other states in the region, some argue it is best that Israel cut a deal -- any deal -- with the Palestinians and Syrians so as to reduce the possibility of conflict with what will be considerably more dangerous adversaries.
Paradoxically, a "solution" of the Arab-Israeli conflict that puts the Syrians on the Kineret [Sea of Galilee] and a sovereign Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza Strip is more likely to increase, rather than reduce, the possibility of a clash with Iran and the like.
That's because wars are not simply the product of a dispute but instead driven by a combination of domestic, regional and other considerations.
A leader wishing to divert his nation's attention from domestic problems, for example, may opt for war to preserve his regime. Under those circumstances, the validity of the claim cited to justify war is of secondary importance.
Withdrawing from the Golan would increase the possibility of war by not only making Northern Israel a more temping target but also by drastically reducing the risks Israel could afford to take when faced with what appears to be a threatening move by Syria -- even if Syria is backed by a nuclear Iraq.
Israel's potential security situation with a sovereign Palestinian state in its bedroom would not only make what's left of Israel an open invitation for invasion but also set the scene for clashes with allies of the Palestinian state as the Jewish state inevitably finds it necessary to violate Palestinian sovereignty (a considerably weightier move than operating in what is now within its own security envelope) in the pursuit of security.
Views expressed by the author do not
necessarily reflect those of israelinsider.
 
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