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By Ted Belman
November 28, 2006
It is incomprehensible that the entire Israeli cabinet would vote for this absurd ceasefire. The Cabinet must have known something that they didn't tell us when it was announced. Now the details are coming out.
Olmert said Sunday during a visit in the Negev that "All of these things ultimately could lead to one thing -- the opening of serious, real, open and direct negotiations between us," he said. "So that we can move forward towards a comprehensive agreement between us and the Palestinians."
He also said that Israel would display "patience and restraint" in the face of Palestinian violations of a cease-fire that went into effect earlier in the day.
"Even though there are still violations of the cease-fire by the Palestinian side, I have instructed our defense officials not to respond, to show restraint, and to give this cease-fire a chance to take full effect," he said, adding "the government of Israel will not miss this opportunity for calm."
Israel Radio on Monday quoted Voice of Palestine Radio as saying that Olmert, Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas, and U.S Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice would soon meet in a three-way summit.
According to Israel Radio, Voice of Palestine also said that Britain had proposed to Israel and the PA that British observers be deployed on the Israel-Gaza Strip border to safeguard the truce that went into effect on Sunday.
Rice is to arrive Wednesday with U.S. President George W. Bush in Jordan to take part in a conference on democracy and development called by King Abdullah, and to meet with Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki. The original plan called for a trip to the region to focus on the Iraqi issue, but now it appears that Rice will be devoting time to Israel and the Palestinians as well.
Jordan-based units of the Palestinian Liberation Army, the armed wing of the Palestine Liberation Organization, may be sent to the Strip to help enforce the cease-fire, Voice of Palestine was further quoted as saying.
You will remember that Meshaal, when he agreed to the ceasefire, said he would give it six months to produce political results.
Aljazeera reported that the political leader of Hamas has said Palestinians will begin a third intifada -- or uprising -- if a political route to a Palestinian state within 1967 borders is not found within six months. "If our demands are not met, the Palestinian people will close all political files and launch a third intifada," Khaled Meshaal said in Cairo on Saturday.
"We give the international community six months for real political horizons.... There is a historic opportunity for a Palestinian state within 1967 borders."
Meshaal accepted the ceasefire because it would enable him to get ready for the third intifada.
Livni and Olmert understand that Hamas will rearm but have announced that they accept the risk. Why?
Olmert said Sunday during a trip to the Negev, "The state of Israel is so strong that it can allow itself to hold back, to give a real chance to the cease-fire. After all, a cease-fire is not the supreme goal. It is only a stage in the process, which we hope will create the dynamic that will lead to negotiations and dialogue, and perhaps will finally bring about an agreement between us and the Palestinians."
Was Israel assured of diplomatic support for an invasion of Gaza should the talks fail? Does Israel really believe that a political solution is possible? Meanwhile Israel is giving a lot to have the "peace process". Israel is allowing Hamas to seriously arm themselves and they will be releasing 1400 prisoners, including those with "blood on their hands" just to be able to see if a deal can be worked out.
The Jerusalem Post adds: "The prime minister also said that Saudi Arabia, the Persian Gulf counties, Egypt and Jordan could play an important supporting role in direct negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians. Olmert signaled for the first time a formal positive Israeli response to parts of the 2002 Saudi imitative, and he said that he would invest efforts in furthering relations with Saudi Arabia and the Persian Gulf nations. He said he was appreciative of their efforts to bring about an end to the violence in the region."
This is only true if it leads to a permanant reproachment between the Arab League and Israel. As you may recall, the Saudi Plan called for normalization of relations. Then and only then can we work together to stop Iran in its tracks.
You will recall that the "moderate" Arab states and the US need Israel to fight against Iran. Olmert recently met with Saudi Arabia to talk about Israel /Saudi relations and this peace process. It is not inconceivable that the mutual threat from Iran will bring an end to the Arab Israeli conflict.
On October 11th, Jordan's King Abdullah warned that Palestinian statehood at risk. More recently, the King warned that the Middle East is facing a crisis, with the Palestinian territories, Lebanon and Iraq at the brink of civil wars.
"We could possibly imagine going into 2007 and having three civil wars on our hands," Abdullah said on ABC's "This Week" program. "It is time that we really take a strong step forward as part of the international community and make sure we avert the Middle East from a tremendous crisis."
Cheney met this weekend with King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia where all these things are being discussed, but particularly Iraq. I think that the Iraq Study Group (ISG), led by James Baker, is becoming a front for the real diplomacy going on to save Saudi Arabia and Jordan. What happens with US policy in Iraq will reflect this need more then the recommendations of the ISG. That is not to say that trying to cut a deal with Syria to get them to side with Saudi Arabia is not part of the plan. And that means the Golan is on the chopping block. Maybe Lebanon, too.
So I think it is clear that from the Arab League's point of view, they are all threatened by destablizing forces headed by Iran. They are ready to compromise on the right of return and on borders. But will it be enough?
To give the "peace process" a(nother) chance, Israel is paying dearly. Hamas is reaping benefits and giving nothing. Israel is suing for peace and the Palestinians are dictating terms of surrender. It should be the other way around. Israel's failure to get tough (i.e. destroy the terrorist infrastructure and expel the terrorists) has brought this about. The idea that we are "strong enough to act weak" is a sop. If we constantly restrain our army rather than drive our advantage home, we are weak and make our enemies strong.
It will all be for naught. War is coming.
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