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By Ted Belman
October 22, 2005
While everyone discusses the nitty gritty of the Roadmap and whether additional steps should be taken, Sharon assures us that the major settlement blocs will be retained and that Jerusalem will remain Israel's undivided capital. Our attention is focused on the number of prisoners to release, whether to give guns and ammunition to the Palestinians, the exact location of the fence being constructed, whether we have anyone to talk to, which kind of land bridge to supply and what kind of border controls to impose.
Amir Oren, Haaretz, in his article, Substitute for the West Bank: 'Training Bloc' brings us back to reality as far as the endgame is concerned:
"Ariel Sharon takes pride in succeeding last year to get President George W. Bush to affirm the need to consider the facts on the ground created by the West Bank settlement blocs. (To be more precise, Condoleezza Rice was the one to sign this affirmation, on behalf of Bush.) This does not include all of the blocs, and does not include Jerusalem, and requires land swaps. It is impossible to know what Israelis would say if they were presented with the choice of terraces in Judea or dunes in the Negev, but one can assume that, from monetary considerations alone, it would be best to seek such a deal in order to save the tens of billions required for building new communities and compensating the settlers."
"Israel will not be able to avoid the question of where land can be taken to give to the nascent Palestinian state in exchange for the land populated by the settlers. Directly or indirectly, the land reserves will be found in the training areas. Directly, as in the example of the Halutza dunes, south of Gaza, or indirectly, if areas adjacent to Mount Hebron are evacuated and their civilian equivalent is taken from the training areas."
There you have it. The Saudi Peace Plan, which Israelis vehemently rejected and still do, is the plan, they think, that the Roadmap refers to and in fact intends to implement, all with Sharon's approval.
The BBC discusses What is in the Saudi peace initiative?
Time Magazine examines it in Anatomy of a Peace Plan:
"The Saudi plan is the first one in which all Arab states collectively -- as opposed to only the front-line states -- have openly rather than implicitly agreed to extend an olive branch agreeing to "normal" relations with Israel."
"The simplicity of Abdullah's initial offering is now cluttered up with calls for a solution to the Palestinian refugee problem and the establishment of a Palestinian capital in Jerusalem."
These complications were imposed by the Arab League when it accepted the plan.
ZOA argues that the Saudi "Peace" Plan Would Reduce Israel To Indefensible Pre-1967 Borders.
In essence, if Israel gets to keep any of the settlement blocs, it will have to compensate the Palestinians with land of equivalent value. In practice this means Israel must cede more land then it keeps, because such land is not worth as much as what is kept. It requires Jerusalem to be shared and justice for the Palestinian refugees. The Arabs insist that all refugees outside must return to the nascent Palestine because they don't want them to remain in their territory. What remains to be discussed are the details. Arab normalization of relations does not come until after Israel withdraws.
Oren discusses in a matter of fact manner what lands Israel will give up to replace the lands it keeps and even goes so far as to write, "With some effort, despite the problems of takeoff and landing paths, the air force and testing base in Palmahim could be evacuated and Israel's main international airport could be built there." This may explain why the fence is allowed to come so close to the present airport.
There is a progression of events here that cannot be ignored and such events are all related.
First Arafat rejected Barak's offer at Camp David. At Taba additional concessions were offered but went nowhere. Behind the scene negotiations continued among the interested parties.
As a result of which the Saudi Plan was "released" through the NYT in the winter of '02 and endorsed by the Arab League shortly thereafter. In July of '02, Bush recognized the creation of Palestine for the first time. During the entire year, Israeli negotiators traveled to the US many times to negotiate details of the final plan and how to implement it.
This all culminated in the release of the Roadmap in the spring of 2003, just after the invasion of Iraq, which was not unrelated. One might argue that Israel would not agree to the Plan unless and until Iraq was neutered. So perhaps it is not fanciful to suggest, as Condi and others do, that Iraq was invaded to protect Israel. Finally, the Geneva Accords were signed in early '03. They served to be a little more specific then the Saudi Plan.
The "peace process" is like an enormous ship traveling with great momentum to a predetermined destination. Nothing Israel can do will stop it or alter its course. While Israel continues to debate the details, the ship continues, inexorably.
So long as Israel travels the Roadmap it will not be able to avoid its destination. Nor can Israel get off the Roadmap. That is not to say that Israelis would not accept an end of conflict agreement along the lines of the Geneva Accords and the Saudi Plan when the time comes so long as it includes "normalization" and no return of refugees.
Then, all they will have to worry about is whether the Arabs can be trusted.
Views expressed by the author do not
necessarily reflect those of israelinsider.
 
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